Free | Global Macro & Strategy

Ignore the crowd and focus on your game plan

US elections, daily pandemic updates, and political scandals are dominating the news headlines. In this world of hyper-connectivity and a constant flow of information, investors must be focused on their game plan and learn to tune out the noise of the crowd. As we witnessed during October’s grand final (AFL or NRL depending on your favoured code), discipline is the key to success.

Markets don’t like uncertainty. True to label in the current environment, markets have been range-trading as significant uncertainty surrounds the outcome of the US elections, as well as the size and scope of a US fiscal package, which requires an agreement with Congress. Add to this ongoing concerns over the pandemic, especially in the US and Europe, and the fraught process of reopening, which has seen mixed success globally.

Managing our portfolio through times like these calls for a solid game plan and the patience to see it through. We can’t afford to bank on one particular outcome (a strategy akin to flipping a coin). We must determine which part of our portfolio will provide protection and which part will allow us to capitalise on the upside and take advantage of potential growth.

Lonsec’s game plan is simple. In a low yield world, you need growth. We have retained our exposure to growth assets such as equities, especially as interest rates remain low and markets continue to be supported by liquidity from central banks. However, we are cognisant that there are risks in the market and therefore we have diversified our equity exposure to incorporate a mix of investment styles that can perform well in different market conditions.

We’re also consciously ensuring that we have exposure to some traditional defensive sectors and investment strategies that we expect to hold up better than the market should we experience a correction. Incorporating diversifying assets that can behave differently from equities and bonds is prudent. We have therefore incorporated alternative assets such as gold in some of our portfolios to bolster our defensive positioning.

Periods of uncertainty can provide opportunity as well as risks, and a dynamic approach is essential for managing both. We have invested in parts of the bond market where we identified significant mispricing opportunities, and we continue to have a positive view on emerging market equities, where we believe the additional potential returns warrant the risk.

As investors, we’re not just playing a single match, or even a single season—we’re playing for long-term success. Markets are unpredictable, but having the right strategy that takes into account a range of possible scenarios, including those that might seem unlikely to us today, will assist in generating more consistent outcomes over the long-term. We can’t win every game or every premiership, but we can increase our chances of accumulating some silverware over time.

Author: Lukasz De Porbaix, CIO, Lonsec Investment Solutions

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